Approval of Draft Climate Impacts on Oceanic Top Predators (CLIOTOP) Science Plan by the GLOBEC International Scientific Steering Committee

Current Status of Accomplishment or Milestone: The draft CLIOTOP Science Plan is being revised in light of comments received by the GLOBEC Scientific Steering Committee. A final Science Plan is expected to be posted on the Internet in the near future (http://www.pml.ac.uk/globec/Structure/RegProgs/regional1.htm).  The CLIOTOP Program is structured around five Working Groups, and plans are being made for two or three groups to have their first meetings in December 2004.  George Watters is co-chair of one of these groups, the Synthesis and Modeling Working Group.

Background: The first CLIOTOP planning meeting was held in SPte, France during 4-7 November, 2003.  During that meeting, an international group of scientists (including George Watters from the SWFSC) developed the ideas and concepts for a new regional program within the GLOBEC International framework.  Discussions at the planning meeting focused on the scientific questions that CLIOTOP would address (see Purpose of Activity below), the tools that would be brought to bear on these questions (modeling, retrospective analyses, the comparative approach, etc.), and the structure of CLIOTOP’s Working Groups.  The ideas formulated at the planning meeting were ultimately integrated into a draft CLIOTOP Science Plan that was collaboratively written by the members of the CLIOTOP Steering Committee, the co-chairs of the CLIOTOP Working Groups, and other interested scientists.

Purpose of Activity/Goal of Project: The focus of the CLIOTOP Program is to understand and predict how the pelagic ecosystems that support top predators such as tunas, billfishes, and sharks jointly respond to climate variability and exploitation.  This focus will be addressed by Working Groups that consider a set of key scientific questions.  These questions are listed below.

Working Group 1:  Early life history of top predators
--Question 1:  What environmental characteristics define the spawning areas and timing of top predators?
--Question 2:  What environmental and biological characteristics most influence larval survival of top predators?

Working Group 2:  Physiology, behavior and distribution of top predators
--Question 1:  To what extent do spatial dynamics result from proximate cues and to what extent are spatial dynamics independent of environmental cues?
--Question 2:  How does school size and fidelity vary in relation to environmental variability and change?
--Question 3:  What determines the time and place of reproductive and feeding-related behavior?
--Question 4:  How do anthropogenic forces such as fishing interact with the environment to impact distribution and population structure?
 
Working Group 3:  Trophic pathways in open ocean pelagic ecosystems
--Question 1:  What are the main trophic pathways of pelagic top predators and how do they differ between and within oceans?
--Question 2:  Is there evidence of change in trophic pathways over time and space consistent with climate variability? Can seasonal and spatial variability be used to explore climate variability?
--Question 3:  Is it possible to identify indicators, such as prey species/size spectra, that would highlight significant changes in trophic pathways?

Working Group 4:  Synthesis and modeling
--Question 1:  What is the relative importance of exploitation and the environment in structuring pelagic ecosystems?
--Question 2:  Does one mechanism (e.g. match/mismatch) explain observed variation across species, trophic pathways, regions, etc.?  Do alternative mechanisms have equally good explanatory power?  Which mechanism(s) provide the greatest predictive power?
--Question 3:  What alternative states might occur in pelagic ecosystems, how might they be characterized (e.g., can they be described by indicators), how might they be caused, what are their consequences, and are they reversible?
--Question 4:  Does knowledge about environmental forcing and the nature of fisheries (e.g. the species composition of the catch) suggest an optimum allocation?

Working Group 5:  Socio-economic aspects of managing and responding to climate impacts on oceanic top predator species
--Question 1:  What are the socio-economic pressures on, and context of, tuna fisheries?
--Question 2:  How have fisheries organizations (whether local, national, regional, or international) addressed climate change issues?
--Question 3:  What are the Flows in capital and knowledge among the world’s large fisheries and how do they respond to variability?
--Question 4:  How useful are the fisheries management decision support tools developed by WG 5?

Description of Accomplishment and Significant Results: Completion of draft CLIOTOP Science Plan and approval by GLOBEC International Scientific Steering Committee, planning for the first meeting of the CLIOTOP Synthesis and Modeling Working Group, and selection of George Watters as co-chair of the latter group.

Significance of Accomplishment (e.g., to the Center, to Management, and to NMFS Strategic plan Goals): CLIOTOP is an international program that will provide the collaborative environment necessary to tackle the difficult questions listed above.  It is important to make progress on these issues because open ocean pelagic fisheries support valuable commercial fisheries as well as protected resources.  Although CLIOTOP will not fund research projects directly, projects that are “accepted” within the CLIOTOP should have increased leverage to obtain funds from other sources.  The SWFSC will be well positioned to actively participate in CLIOTOP research.

Problems: None.

Key Contact: George Watters (831-648-0623, gwatters@pfeg.noaa.gov)