Participation on the PICES Study Group on Fisheries and Ecosystem Responses to Recent Regime Shifts (FERRRS)

Current Status of Accomplishment or Milestone: A draft report has been completed and will be submitted to the PICES Science Board for review on 30 July.

Background: Members of the west coast fishing industry are concerned over the effects of a climate regime shift on the economic viability of their businesses.  Following the strong 1997-1998 El Nino, the North Pacific climate underwent a rapid and striking physical and biological transition. In the California Current, coho and Chinook salmon stocks rebounded, and anchovy and osmeriid stocks increased. In other regions a major shift in climate forcing occurred in 1988-1989. Such shifts can seriously affect the fishing industry and consumers. The United States has requested that PICES provide it with advice on the regime shift issue.

Purpose of Activity/Goal of Project: PICES has convened an ad hoc Study Group under its Science Board, to gather the necessary information and develop a draft document for discussion, and provide a written report by summer 2004, for review by PICES with submission to the United States in the fall of 2004. Frank Schwing was one of the scientists appointed to the Study Group.

Description of Accomplishment and Significant Results: The FERRRS Study Group, comprised of 21 scientific experts from six nations, has met twice to discuss a response to the U.S. government's request, and has prepared a draft report that describes the scientific background of this subject and a response to a set of questions posed by the U.S. The report will be reviewed by the PICES Science Board and will be submitted to the United States in the fall of 2004. Schwing was the lead author on a chapter of the report on Decadal-scale Climate Events in the North Pacific.

Significance of Accomplishment (e.g., to the Center, to Management, and to NMFS Strategic plan Goals): The PICES FERRRS Study Group will produce an international consensus on issues relevant to resource management in the context of climate regime shifts.

Problems: None.

Key Contact: Franklin B. Schwing, (831-648-9034, fschwing@pfeg.noaa.gov)